Fort Meade - USNA - Andrews AFB: October 2009

Long and Foster agents in Crofton, Maryland, jumped into action when I told them about Operation Christmas Stocking, just five days ago.

There were so many bags and boxes of goodies in my office, two days later, that I could barely make a path to my desk.  Yesterday, several agents and family members showed up to fill 101 holiday gift bags!

Toiletries, toys, playing cards, puzzle books and pencils, notepaper and pens, candy and lots of other things overflowed the holiday gift bags, along with a hand-wrtten Christmas card to say "thank you" to the gift bag recipient.

I'd like to say "thank you" to my office for responding so quickly and generously.  You're amazing!

Crofton Maryland homeowners want to know, “Is the real estate market stabilizing in Crofton?”  Using statistics from the five most recent years, I’ll do my best to answer that for you.

Good news:

• More homes sold/settled during September 2009 in Crofton, Maryland, than September of the two most recent years, although we’re nowhere near the number of the bubble year 2006. 
  
• More good news:  “Days on Market” are down almost 15% from the same month last year, and
  
• Both the average and median prices are up slightly from September a year ago.

My daughter-in-law, Christine, prepared this chart so we can see a five-year trend in all the areas tracked by Metropolitan Regional Information Services (MRIS).  I think this expanded look at the Crofton real estate market is necessary to get a true picture of any trends occurring in the Crofton Maryland real estate market:

Not all Crofton real estate news is good, however:

• The number of new non-contingent contracts last month was lower than any September in recent memory – 17 in 2009 vs. 32 in 2006.
  
• The sold price, as a percentage of list price, is down – also the lowest it’s been any September during a 5–year period.
  
• The number of new listings is nearly double the number of new contracts.  Until these numbers are more balanced, we can't realistically expect a stable real estate market. 

Looking at all these numbers, that last bullet point is the one things that best answers the question, “Is the real estate market stabilizing in Crofton?”  As long as new listings outnumber new non-contingent contracts, we will have a supply and demand problem in Crofton Maryland real estate. 

Right now, if you divide the number of September listings (155) by the number of new non-contingent contracts (17), you will see a 9+ month absorption rate.  The scariest thing about that may be the fact that we don’t know how home values may change during that 9+ month period – they could go down.  For that reason, I encourage anyone putting their home on the market now to be aggressive in pricing their home so it sells sooner rather than later.

This chart and my commentary are based on figures for the entire 21114 zipcode.  If you’re thinking of buying or selling a home in the near future, you will want information that’s specific to your neighborhood, or at least to the type of home (detached vs. townhome, for example). 

Contact me any time for this information or, if you prefer, you can request a MARKET SNAPSHOT online.

P.S.  Thanks, Christine, for preparing this chart of Crofton Maryland real estate statistics for September 2009.

It's not too late for you and your office to participate in Operation Christmas Stocking, the nationwide mega-effort to provide Christmas stockings or gift bags to deployed troops.  However, time is getting short, since they have to be received in the Salt Lake City warehouse BEFORE NOVEMBER 1.

Just purchase some stockings or holiday gift bags at your local dollar store and ask other agents, lenders, closing attorneys, and even past clients to drop off goodies for filling them.  Items don't need to be expensive. We found it efficient to have only about 3 or 4 people actually stuffing the bags, or dividing into teams might be a good option if enough people are participating in the stuffing effort.

Here are some ideas for filling the bags:

Hard candy, socks, games, toileties (toothbrush and toothpaste, deodorant, shampoo, sunscreen, hand cream, etc), yo-yo, playing cards, harmonica, inflatable beach ball, hand sanitizer, pen, paperback books, puzzles, bug spray, chapstick, etc.

Shipping is free, as long as the budget holds out.  Here are the shipping instructions.

For more information, visit Operation Christmas Stocking - and get started today.  If you're anywhere near Crofton, Maryland, I could use your help.  Call me at 410-721-1500 for more information.

PHOTO:  Melissa Slye stuffing holiday gift bags for the troops in October 2008.

The real estate market showed quite an improvement last month in Anne Arundel County, Maryland, compared to September 2008.  The number of homes sold and settled was UP almost 25% and the "Days on Market" went down over 11%.

I don't believe this is the beginning of a market trend for homeowners who are waiting for the market to turn before they sell, however.  More likely, it is a temporary "bubble" that has been stimulated by the federal government's $8,000 tax credit (due to expire next month) and the huge inventory of bank-owned properties and short sales being picked up by investors at bargain prices and then flipped for profit (still at bargain sale prices) after some improvements. These properties continued to drive DOWN both the average (-13.95%) and median (-9.38%) sold prices in Anne Arundel County in September 2009.

There was quite a shift in the type of financing buyers used last month, compared to a year ago, with the number of Conventional loans remaining steady, but a lot more FHA and VA loans, and nearly three times as many cash purchases as a year ago.  I suspect most of those cash purchases were probably made by speculators, not owner-occupant homebuyers.

Source:  MRIS

Compare these numbers to buyers' financing choices in Anne Arundel County during the same month last year:  FHA (140), VA (41), Conventional (153), Cash (13), Assumption (31), and Other (10).  FHA has grown exponentially as the financing of choice - probably due to the disproportionate number of first-time home buyers pulled into the market-place by the temporary $8,000 tax credit.

If the tax credit legislation expires, as scheduled on November 30, it will be interesting to track financing for another year.

My crystal ball:  I consider the greatest predictor of future real estate trends to be the comings and goings in the market... New listings coming on the market each month vs. listings going under contract.  In September 2009, there were 810 new listings in Anne Arundel County, Maryland - more than double the 379 non-contingent home sales.  Even if you add in the 170 contingent home sales for a total of 549, the inventory is still growing at a much greater rate than homes are selling.

This is one of the prime measures of a "Buyer's Market" - i.e., when market conditions favor home buyers, rather than home sellers.  With 4038 homes on the market throughout the county in a single month, 482 going to settlement, and 549 combined contingent and non-contingent new contracts - buyers clearly have the upper hand.  In a nutshell, they have options... many options.  If one seller won't meet their terms, chances are the next one will.

So yes... things are better, in that the number of homes sold and settled went up nearly 25% last month over the same month last year, and the "Days on Market" went down.  BUT let's not start celebrating quite yet.