Bowie, Crofton, Crownsville, Davidsonville, Gambrills and Odenton, Maryland real estate sales don't always match what you see in the media.
"REAL ESTATE SALES DOWN 27%" read the headlines and led the TV news reports earlier this week.
Was anyone surprised that closings in July were down, since home buyers were bribed into closing in June with an $8,000 tax credit? Anyone who planned to buy a home this summer (maybe even this year) had big incentive to advance their timetable and buy a home in time to close before June 30. OF COURSE, home sales were down in July - at least on a global level!
Frankly, I'm surprised the drop in sales wasn't even greater. But 27% was the percentage for home closings nationwide and we've all heard repeatedly that "real estate is local"...
Let's look at units sold in the greater Crofton area during July 2010, keeping in mind that real estate sales were down 27% nationally:
Bowie (20715): 25
Down 8.7% from July 2009; Down 24% from June 2010
Crofton (21114): 25
Down 24% from July 2009; Down 17% from June 2010
Crownsville (21032): 10
Up 25% from July 2009; Down 86% from June 2010
Davidsonville (21035): 1
Down 83.3% from July 2009; Down 75% from June 2010
Gambrills (21054): 13
Up 333% from July 2009; Nearly doubled from 7 in June 2010
Odenton (21114): 32
Up 23% from Juy 2009; Down only 6% from June 2010
SOURCE: MRIS. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed.
As you can see, there are huge differences even between adjacent zipcodes. This chart confirms once again that "all real estate is local." Those national statistics released by NAR and sensationalized by the media really have little, if anything, to do with real estate in our own local communities.
If you want to know what's happening in local real estate - i.e., Bowie, Crofton, Crownsville, Davidsonville, Gambrills, or Odenton - give me a call or click on the link below. I'll be glad to localize the numbers even more - to your own immediate neighborhood.
Copyright 2006-12. All rights reserved.
DISCLAIMER: Information contained in this post is deemed reliable on the date of publication, but it is not guaranteed and it is subject to change without notice.
________________________________________________________________________________________
Margaret Woda, REALTOR and Associate Broker
Direct: (301)346-2923 or click on EMAIL
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Long & Foster Real Estate, Inc., 2191 Defense Hwy., Crofton, MD 21114 (410) 721-1500
Whether it's cash for clunkers or a credit for buying, superficially stimulated markets have a downside...fortunately for this area, we have a lot of other things going for us like jobs! ;-) Excellent reminder real estate is local.
Hi Margaret, I was discussing this with an agent friend in my office on Friday and she suggested that if we thought the news was bad for July, wait until the numbers come out in August. I checked around a bit and found exactly what you have determined, that communities side by side are showing vast differences. The only real way to evaluate it is the way you did it. And If an area had only one or two sales and the surrounding community had 20, adding these two together and dividing by two does not give anything close to an accurate picture. Sales are up or down and over the long term, new normals are being set that can not be averaged. San Diego has over 30 zip codes and some areas have little housing so it doesn't change hands often.
One of the things we have learned here in the Rain is the unique characteristics of the many housing markets across the country. The only way the national figures could have any meaning at all is in a very general sense. The variations are too vast to average this way unless they show the mix they used to determine it.
We all get the picture that some areas are very slow due to a lot of different factors and some are enjoying very active sales. Averaging them with the big headlines of a 27% drop in sales is about as useful as counting feathers on a chicken.
Consumers could get so much better information sticking with us ( ActiveRain) on each of the local market and recognize how useless the headlines are that try to grab consumers attention away from the micro markets they actually care about.
The saying that all Real Estate is local speaks volumes. People generalize way to much in Real Estate.
Margaret, our statistics are less promising than the national average, and even your Crownsville has it's share of problems but it also looks like it might be a small community. Interesting stats.
Comparing zip codes with 10 sales a month is not exactly an accurate picture of anything as the sample is too small. But as always, agents will argue anything to convince people that its always a great time to buy.
Margaret, I mean Du-un! And aren't there always fewer settlements in July than June? I mean, let's figure out a comparison that will be guarantted to make it look like the market is down the toilet.
Stacy-Ann - LOL... So true... the so-called experts in the media and apparently more than a few politicians.
We do, indeed, have other things going for us, Susan. Thank goodness.
William - I like thqt saying... as useful as counting feathers on a chicken
Bill - That's so true!
Ed - Some zipcodes have so little turnover that the statistics are practically useless. But those are facts for those areas and I can't change them... all I can do is report them.
San Diego Short Sales - I don't usually respond to nameless faceless commenters, but let me ask... If one of the zipcodes in your target market had only 1-10 sales, would you just pretend the zipcode doesn't exist? ...That it's not in your market? Not report the facts as to how many homes sold? It seems to me that the numbers are the numbers and there's no interpretation here - just accurate numbers.
Patricia - LOL. Good point. But this year it's worse than usual since so many summer buyers changed their timetable to get that $8,000 "donated" by taxpayers. I think most real estate people would have suggested that any tax credit should have ended with closings on March 31 so the spring market might have picked up where the tax credit ended. What do you think?
Exactly what I tell anyone that asks me about the real estate market. "I don't know, where do you live in Atlanta, it could be different in your area versus another."
Great review of your local market Margaret...I need to do the same, since I only have 2 zip codes that cover Midtown Atlanta, it should be pretty easy!
Margaret - this was an excellent analysis of the market stats in your area. I would have to concur with Ed, the numbers in our area aren't as promising, even though there are variations between all of the zip codes that we both serve.
Margaret, well said! Wouldn't it be nice if the media would state "all real estate is local"?
Margaret... I agree, an excellent analysis of your market... and even your input about the homebuyers tax credit, on how that truly artificially stimulated the economy and market data throughout the U.S. nice job here.
Not only is all real estate local, but the best expert on local real estate is your local real estate agent!